Abstract
Objective
To assess the relationship between gestational lengths of the first and second pregnancies
in the same women.
Study design
Observational study.
Methods
We used information from a dataset of over 500,000 pregnancies from 15 maternity units
in the North West Thames, London. Data on the gestational length in days of the first
pregnancy and the gestational length in days of the second pregnancy were correlated
using regression models. First and second pregnancies were ascribed to the same women
by identical maternal date of birth, ethnicity and maternal height (to within ±3 cm).
Results
There is a statistically significant cubic relationship between the gestational lengths
of the first birth and the second birth (R 0.102, p < 0.001). The gestational length of the second pregnancy is likely to be closer to 280
days than the first pregnancy. In the 20% of women who had an interpregnancy interval
of less than one year, the next pregnancy was one day shorter for every three months
less than 12.
Conclusions
Although the gestation of second pregnancies exhibits regression towards the mean
of 280 days, there is still a clinically important tendency for both preterm and postdates
pregnancies to recur. Prediction of an estimated delivery date for second pregnancies
should take into account both the length of the first pregnancy and the interpregnancy
interval if it is less than 12 months.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: April 06, 2016
Accepted:
March 29,
2016
Received in revised form:
March 25,
2016
Received:
January 22,
2016
Identification
Copyright
Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
