Highlights
- •Clinical application of prediction models is increasing within the field of OBGYN.
- •Correct model development and transparent reporting is important for clinical use.
- •We advise using the TRIPOD criteria for developing and validating prediction models.
Abstract
The clinical application of prediction models is increasing within the field of gynaecology
and obstetrics. This is mostly due to the fact that clinicians and patients prefer
individualized counselling and person specific, more objective outcome assessment.
To prevent using inadequate models, it is important to construct and perform prediction
model studies correctly. Therefore, the TRIPOD statement (the Transparent Reporting
of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) was developed.
The aim of this review is to obtain an overview of the existing published prediction
models for benign gynaecology and to investigate to what extent these studies meet
the TRIPOD criteria.
We performed a literature search in the databases PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library
from inception to August 2020. Searching the cross-references of the relevant studies
within our search identified additional articles. Publications were included if the
aim of the study was to develop a multivariable prediction model within the field
of benign gynaecology. Two independent reviewers extracted the data. Analysis of the
studies was performed by using a checklist derived from the TRIPOD criteria.
Based on our search, 2487 studies were selected, including potential duplications.
Eventually, a total of twenty-two studies were selected. 91% of these studies handled
their predictors by univariable analysis before developing a multivariable prediction
model. Fifteen studies described having missing data, but not all of them (9%) handled
these missing data. Four different internal validation methods were used in twenty
studies. Fifteen studies (68%) had prediction models with a C-index ≥ 0.7, which indicates
a good model. Half of the studies (50%) did not measure the calibration, overall performance
was described in two studies (9%). External validation was performed in 9% of the
studies.
The correct development of a prediction model within benign gynaecology and subsequent
transparent reporting of the model development is important to facilitate clinical
use. Without transparent reporting, wrong assumptions can be made leading to incorrect
application of a specific prediction model. This overview shows that excepting carrying
out an external validation, only one article met all the criteria. Therefore, we strongly
recommend use of the TRIPOD criteria for developing and validating a prediction model
(study). In addition, prior to publication, content experts should critically and
statistically review the prediction model. If too many criteria are not met, refusing
publication should be considered.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: August 25, 2021
Accepted:
August 15,
2021
Received in revised form:
August 5,
2021
Received:
May 18,
2021
Identification
Copyright
© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
